動画公開日：2024-01-29 08:41:47
The Federal Reserve meets this Wednesday. Expectations are interest rates will be left unchanged. We expect the Fed to remain dovish. Core PCE inflation for December was 2.9% YoY. It is above the market and even the Fed’s projection of 3.2%. Inflation was lowest in almost three years when the Fed funds rate was still at zero. The odds of rate hikes this year have increased. Beneficiaries include REITs and property sectors.
After attending multiple REIT results briefings last week, the conclusion is operationally rents are still rising but finance and foreign exchange remain headwinds. This will lead to mediocre DPU growth in 2024. Any rate cuts will not impact DPU as debt is largely hedged at a fixed rate. The most challenging segment is industrials in China. Logistics rents are declining as much as 20% in Tier 2 cities and data centre tenants are in arrears. A combination of weak economy, higher supply and regulations have impacted the industry. Conversely, Singapore’s retail looks the strongest for rental reversion. It benefits from a 3-year renewal cycle that is refreshed against pandemic rents. The rental index is still 22% below pre-pandemic levels. The office sector is expected to grow at a slower pace due to a decade-high in pipeline supply and cautious corporates. Industrial outlook ranges from undersupplied high-spec logistics to weak business parks. Business parks face huge supply from Punggol digital district and Singapore Science Park, an estimated 4mn sft supply. Industrial buildings face slow growth amid a soft export environment. Consequently, tenants are also not looking to relocate. Existing data centres are unlikely to benefit from the growth in AI due to the lack of available power. Pure AI or GPU cloud data centres such as CoreWeave are likely to thrive.
Marina Bay Sands’s record earnings in the December quarter point to strong mass market growth of 22% YoY whilst VIP volumes are flat. Genting Singapore should register robust earnings. Another positive will be for the construction industry. Marina Bay’s planned 4th tower and capex of S$4.5bn are still on track. Possible completion date is 2030. Beneficiaries include building material suppliers Pan United and BRC Asia.
—
Join our community groups now!
https://onelink.to/7t4ntw
The Daily Morning Note is a round-up of local and global business headlines that you need to know to get ahead of your day.
This programme is brought to you by PYTCH — Reimagining finance
Discover financial literacy through insightful content and engaging interviews, mastering the art of understanding money.
Connect with PYTCH Media:
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/PYTCHMediaYouTube
Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/PYTCHMediaFacebook
Instagram: https://tinyurl.com/PYTCHMediaInstagram
LinkedIn: https://tinyurl.com/PYTCHMediaLinkedIn
Website: https://tinyurl.com/PYTCHMediaWebsite
Also available on:
Telegram: https://t.me/GlobalInvestmentsPhillip
Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/YTanchor
PhillipCapital Facebook: https://tinyurl.com/PhillipCaptialFBYT
#PYTCH #PYTCHMedia #PhillipCapital #YourPartnerinFinance #Servingyousince1975 #DailyMorningNote #DMN #DailyNews #FinanceNews #Tesla #FederalReserve #REITs #MarinaBaySands #GentingSingapore #PanUnited #BRCA Asia #CoreWeave
